US Dollar Index Price Analysis: A break above 104.00 hinges on the Fed

• DXY remains directionless around 103.50 ahead of the FOMC.
• The resumption of the upside could see the 2022 peak retested.

DXY exchanges gains with losses in the mid-103.00s in pre-FOMC trading on Wednesday.

Price action in DXY keeps pointing to some consolidation ahead of the potential breakout of the current pattern. In that scenario, the next up barrier aligns at the 19-year high just below the 104.00 yardstick (April 28) ahead of the 105.63 (December 11 2002 high).

The current bullish stance in the index remains supported by the 8-month line near 96.80, while the longer-term outlook for the dollar is seen constructive while above the 200-day SMA at 95.87.

DXY daily chart