ECB Bulletin: Economic indicators suggest that output may well contract in Q4 2020

In its latest monthly bulletin, the European Central Bank (ECB) provides update on economic and monetary developments, with the key highlights found below.

“The unemployment rate in the euro area declined further in November 2020, helped by an increase in the number of workers covered by job retention schemes.” 

“Short-term labour market indicators have continued to improve somewhat, but are still signalling contractionary developments.“

“After the strong growth seen in the third quarter, which was driven by very dynamic growth in machinery and equipment, corporate investment is likely to have increased slightly further in the fourth quarter, but the second wave of the pandemic suggests downside risks to investment in the first quarter of 2021.”

“Following the rebound in euro area trade seen in the third quarter, growth in trade has moderated.“

“Economic indicators (particularly survey results) suggest that output may well contract in the fourth quarter of 2020, reflecting the strengthening of containment measures.” 

“Looking ahead, the roll-out of vaccines, which started in late December, allows for greater confidence in the resolution of the health crisis.”

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