Eurozone: ECB meeting and PMIs in focus – TDS

TD Securities analysts suggest that ahead of todays ECB meeting, we have the flash PMIs for October and will be a key economic release for the day.

Key Quotes

“We'll be keeping a close eye on German manufacturing, which took a steep dive lower last month after stabilising in August, with some very weak survey details. Given that new orders fell at their quickest rate since April 2009, we think there's likely further downside to come and look for the PMI to fall to 41.0 (mkt 42.0), a new post-financial crisis low.”

“For France, we think that the services PMI likely held fairly steady just above the 50 mark, with a reading of 51.0 in October.”

“For the ECB meeting, we look for a fairly uneventful meeting, with more focus on celebrating Draghi's 8 years as ECB President before his term ends at the end of the month. However, we do expect a dovish lean, given the concern about inflation expectations, which we don't think are likely to show any real signs of improvement for Q4, as well as softer growth trends, which we think will lead to forecast downgrades in December.”