RBA: Market reaction to rest heavily on the communication – ANZ

According to ANZ analysts, current pricing puts the probability of a cut at the October RBA meeting at 80%, despite the lack of clear signal from Lowe during the week.

Key Quotes

“With this level of pricing, market reaction will rest heavily on the communication. Any AUD rally on a no-cut decision will likely be short-lived (as we saw in NZ this week) as expectations immediately shift to November.”

“We therefore favour using any hawkish disappointment as an opportunity to reset shorts. Data-wise we get retail sales, building approvals, private sector credit and the trade balance.”