UK: Guided by the Brexit uncertainty – Danske Bank

According to analysts at Danske Bank, the two main things to look out for in the near-term for the UK economy are whether there will be a no confidence vote in Theresa May and whether the supporting party, Ulster's DUP, will pull its support for the government.

Key Quotes

“With respect to the former, it is proving more difficult for the Brexit hardliners to secure the 48 'no confidence' letters than they had imagined.”

“We still think a leadership challenge is likely, but the difficulties support our view that Theresa May is likely to survive it. With respect to the latter, the DUP chose to abstain from the budget votes last night, which is against the confidence and supply deal between May and the DUP, which indicates that the DUP will support the government on (among other things) the budget and finance bills. The big question we need an answer to is whether this is just a warning shot, or whether the DUP is indeed about to pull its overall support.”