EUR/USD could test 1.2476 if 1.2340/50 is cleared – Commerzbank

In view of Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, the pair could attempt a test of 1.2476 on a surpass of the 1.2340/50 band.

Key Quotes

“EUR/USD recovered yesterday following its failure to CLOSE below the 1.2257 2017-2018 uptrend, it is trading back in the range. We preferably need to see a close below the 1.2155 Feb 2018 low to confirm a break down/top formation. Near term the market remains capped by the 55 day moving average at 1.2340 and stays directly offered below here”.

“Intraday Elliott wave counts are conflicting, above 1.2340/50 would allow for recovery very near term to 1.2476 the end of March high”.

“Above the 2008-2018 resistance line at 1.2622 lies the 1.3190 50% retracement of the move down from 2008 (not favoured)”.