Switzerland: Growth acceleration to take a hit from KOF barometer - ING

Analysts at ING, note that the KOF Economic barometer, the leading indicator of the Swiss economy, fell more than expected in March, to 106.0 from 108.4 in February.

Key Quotes

“The indicator reached its peak in 4Q17 but in March below its 2017 average of 107, limiting the possibility of growth acceleration after the first quarter.”

“The decline mainly came from the manufacturing industry, especially the export sector and more specifically the metal sector, where the overall business situation was assessed more pessimistically than in February.”

“Given that Switzerland is a small open economy and net exports contributed positively to growth in 4Q17, this pessimistic view is probably due to US President Donald Trump’s protectionist policies.”

“After slow GDP growth (1.1%) in 2017 with a buoyant second half, Switzerland started 2018 on a strong footing. If the pessimism subsides, we believe the Swiss economy should grow by 2.1% in 2018.”