EUR/USD cautious following recent tops – Commerzbank

Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, assessed the recent price action around the pair.

Key Quotes

“EUR/USD has seen a minor break to a new high, which was not sustained and the new high has been accompanied by a divergence of the daily RSI. In addition it was also a key day reversal which suggests a failure move. And let us not forget that directly above the market lies the long term downtrend at 1.2680”.

“We also note the TD perfected set up on the monthly chart, the divergence of the weekly RSI both of which also suggest caution/failure. Nearby support lies at the 20 day ma at 1.2382 ahead of 1.2165, the 18th January low. The 2017-2018 uptrend lies at 1.2044 and a close below here will be needed to confirm the end of the move higher”.

“Above the 2008-2018 resistance line at 1.2680 would target 1.3190 the 50% retracement of the move down from 2008”.