USD/CHF potential upside to 0.9800/55 band – Commerzbank

In view of Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, the pair could still be headed towards the 0.9800/55 area.

Key Quotes

“USD/CHF near term is neutral to positive. The market continues to consolidate above the base of a 2 year channel (circa .9628), but we suspect it is in fact base building. Upside potential remains for further gains to the .9800/55 band. The March low and 30th May high lie at .9808/14 and we suspect that the market may struggle here. This guards the 200 day ma at .9963, which in turn protects the key resistance, which is now the 1.0108 April high. Dips should find some nearby support offered by the near term support line at .9977(holding on a closing basis).The intraday Elliott counts are conflicting and for now we are side lined”.

“Below .9628, we are unable to dismiss further slippage to .9554/44, but suspect that this is now less likely (the 200 week ma and 2016 low)”.