US NFP: Looking for a deceleration to 145k - TDS

Research Team at TDS, suggests that today all eyes will be on the US payrolls report-particularly following the deluge of hawkish signals coming from Federal Reserve in recent weeks.

Key Quotes

“Markets are looking for another modestly positive print at 160K new jobs in June, though we think that is a touch optimistic and are looking for a deceleration to 145k. Note that the ongoing strike at Verizon is depressing the job creation figures by ~35k. We expect the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 5.0% (consensus: 4.9%).

Other notable releases include the international trade balance and factory orders for April and ISM non-manufacturing index for May. We are a bit more pessimistic than the market on international trade (TD: -$41.6b, consensus: -$41.0b), and ISM non-manufacturing (TD: 55.1, consensus: 55.3), but we are looking for a healthy 2.4% m/m increase in factory orders (consensus: 1.9%).”