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4 Feb 2016
US: Productivity likely dropped, unit labour costs surged during Q4 - SocGen
Research Team at Societe Generale, suggests that available data suggest that nonfarm business productivity fell sharply during the final quarter of 2015.
Key Quotes
“Following a likely revised 2.1% annualized summer advance, as a projected 3.3% expansion in total hours worked yielded a paltry 0.1% rise in real output. Although nominal compensation per hour is expected to slow from 4.0% in Q3 to 1.9% during the reference period, the estimated 3.1% drop in output per hour worked would propel units labor costs 5.1% higher – the largest increase since the fall of 2014. If our projections are on the mark, nonfarm business sector productivity edged just 0.3% higher over the course of calendar 2015, while unit labor costs posted a 3.2% gain.”
Key Quotes
“Following a likely revised 2.1% annualized summer advance, as a projected 3.3% expansion in total hours worked yielded a paltry 0.1% rise in real output. Although nominal compensation per hour is expected to slow from 4.0% in Q3 to 1.9% during the reference period, the estimated 3.1% drop in output per hour worked would propel units labor costs 5.1% higher – the largest increase since the fall of 2014. If our projections are on the mark, nonfarm business sector productivity edged just 0.3% higher over the course of calendar 2015, while unit labor costs posted a 3.2% gain.”