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AUD/USD, bids dry up ahead of 0.95

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - AUD/USD has been accelerating higher along a Asia, with the rate breaking through Nov 1 swing high at 0.9490 on the back of improved retail sales data in Australia, leading to some stop being tripped ahead of 0.95 round number.

AUD/USD technicals

On the topside, according to Jim Langlands, Founder at FXCharts: "The first port of call is at Fridays 0.9488 top, above which 0.9500 is 23.6% of 0.9757/0.9422, and which will be a tough to crack. Above there, 0.9525 and 0.9548 (0.382 of 0.9757/0.9422) will see good sellers." In the medium term, Langlands sees the downside exposed, noting "the dailies are pointing to further weakness in the sessions that lie ahead with potential to eventually head back to 0.9250."

RBA monetary meeting eyed

The RBA meets Tuesday, and with chances of a rate cut being near zero as per swap rates pricing, it will be interesting to analyse the statement. In view of John Noonan, Head of IFR Markets, focus will be on "surging house prices, inflation & the AUD, after the last statement surprised by not showing much concern over the AUD bounce, but Gov Stevens appeared to stiffen the rhetoric last week. "

Flash: RBNZ rate hike cycle outlook - BNZ

It is well know by market participants that the RBNZ is very likely to embark upon a tightening cycle starting in 2014, and thought to be extended throughout 2 years. According to Kymberly Martin, Strategist at BNZ, there is equally balanced risks of seeing a first 25bps hike in June next year with a 4.50% peak in 2H 2015.
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Flash: AUD/USD, upside potential near term - RBS

According to Greg Gibbs, FX Strategist at Royal Bank of Scotland, the Reserve Bank of Australia will have to acknowledge better sentiment and economic conditions at its monetary meeting on Tuesday, an outcome that coupled with the prospects of 'non-taper' by the Fed until March, at least, leads Gibbs to recommend an upside bias on the AUD/USD.
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