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29 Oct 2015
EUR/USD: bulls holding form towards US closing
FXStreet (Guatemala) - EUR/USD is currently drifting along the better bid tone of the day, despite the GDP and PCE numbers disappointing from the US market.
GDP was a slight miss, 0.1% below expectations as was core PCE, but nevertheless, these are still not looking strong enough for the Fed to make a move despite the hawkish rhetoric yesterday.
We are no better off on this data so it will be interesting to see how the FOMC justifies a rate hike on continued below estimate data and contractions vs previous releases. The jobs data in Nov/Dec will be very key going into the Dec meeting while there is still time for inflation to start to move towards the 2% target between now and then to offer more confidence that the 2% target will be achieved in the medium term.
Fed last chance to hike before poorer data?
There is another sense that the Fed may just hike in December as being the last chance to justifying doing so before the US data worsens into the first quarter of 2016 while seeking to manage inflationary pressures further out, if indeed they are confident enough that they are on track to achieve the 2% inflation target in 2016.
EUR/USD levels
EUR/USD is technically in a minor recovery from the lows on the 1.0900 level, 1.0897 being the lows scored yesterday, with demand coming in before the 1.0855 6th Aug lows and 1.0808 19th July low. While price remains below the 200 DMA, at 1.1110 currently, downward pressures will persist into month end, capping any further recovery attempts below 1.1100.
GDP was a slight miss, 0.1% below expectations as was core PCE, but nevertheless, these are still not looking strong enough for the Fed to make a move despite the hawkish rhetoric yesterday.
We are no better off on this data so it will be interesting to see how the FOMC justifies a rate hike on continued below estimate data and contractions vs previous releases. The jobs data in Nov/Dec will be very key going into the Dec meeting while there is still time for inflation to start to move towards the 2% target between now and then to offer more confidence that the 2% target will be achieved in the medium term.
Fed last chance to hike before poorer data?
There is another sense that the Fed may just hike in December as being the last chance to justifying doing so before the US data worsens into the first quarter of 2016 while seeking to manage inflationary pressures further out, if indeed they are confident enough that they are on track to achieve the 2% inflation target in 2016.
EUR/USD levels
EUR/USD is technically in a minor recovery from the lows on the 1.0900 level, 1.0897 being the lows scored yesterday, with demand coming in before the 1.0855 6th Aug lows and 1.0808 19th July low. While price remains below the 200 DMA, at 1.1110 currently, downward pressures will persist into month end, capping any further recovery attempts below 1.1100.