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4 Mar 2015
EUR/NOK around 8.00 by end-2016 – BAML
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The cross could decline to the area of 8.0000 the figure towards the end of 2016.
Key Quotes
“We adjust our EUR/NOK forecasts lower, targeting EUR/NOK at 8.30 by the end of the year and 8.00 by end-2016”.
“With oil prices playing such a large role for Norway and the NOK, there is still significant uncertainty around the outlook”.
“We believe Norges will cut rates in March and maintain an easing bias, but there are some key events before the March meeting – oil investment survey, regional network survey and inflation to name some – which could potentially weaken the case for an immediate cut”.
“In the medium term, ECB QE will be beneficial for Norway, as well as pushing EUR lower. We also do not exclude a fiscal response to support the non-oil economy, as well as a modest recovery in oil prices, in all suggesting a more positive outlook for 2H15”.
Key Quotes
“We adjust our EUR/NOK forecasts lower, targeting EUR/NOK at 8.30 by the end of the year and 8.00 by end-2016”.
“With oil prices playing such a large role for Norway and the NOK, there is still significant uncertainty around the outlook”.
“We believe Norges will cut rates in March and maintain an easing bias, but there are some key events before the March meeting – oil investment survey, regional network survey and inflation to name some – which could potentially weaken the case for an immediate cut”.
“In the medium term, ECB QE will be beneficial for Norway, as well as pushing EUR lower. We also do not exclude a fiscal response to support the non-oil economy, as well as a modest recovery in oil prices, in all suggesting a more positive outlook for 2H15”.