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6 Feb 2015
Key events for the day ahead - Rabobank
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at Rabobank explained the day ahead and key events.
Key Quotes:
"In Germany we have industrial production (seen +0.4% MoM) and -0.3% YoY, and the ECB’s Nouy speaks along with the Italian finance minister, with the former no doubt there just to make sure the latter doesn’t answer the phone to anyone from Athens."
"In the UK there are trade data that will show the traditional, perennial UK trade deficit."
"Then we get the dish of the day, US payrolls. The expectation today is for 230K, slightly lower than the 252K seen last month, and broadly in keeping with the trend shown in the ADP data. However, given we are getting survey revisions, those estimates could prove very wide of the mark. Perhaps as importantly, hourly earnings, which were -0.2% in December, are seen +0.3% in January, taking them up to 1.9% YoY – hardly a concern but at least heading in the direction that Fed hawks are looking for so hawkishly."
"It goes without saying that this report has the potential to throw already febrile markets into a serious frenzy. If we can get 10bp moves in Treasuries on minor data, then a double-digit shift today seems likely; meanwhile, in FX it will be interesting to see if the USD sell-off continues or is rapidly reversed – either way the move could prove to be large, and painful to be on the wrong side of. Happy Friday!"
Key Quotes:
"In Germany we have industrial production (seen +0.4% MoM) and -0.3% YoY, and the ECB’s Nouy speaks along with the Italian finance minister, with the former no doubt there just to make sure the latter doesn’t answer the phone to anyone from Athens."
"In the UK there are trade data that will show the traditional, perennial UK trade deficit."
"Then we get the dish of the day, US payrolls. The expectation today is for 230K, slightly lower than the 252K seen last month, and broadly in keeping with the trend shown in the ADP data. However, given we are getting survey revisions, those estimates could prove very wide of the mark. Perhaps as importantly, hourly earnings, which were -0.2% in December, are seen +0.3% in January, taking them up to 1.9% YoY – hardly a concern but at least heading in the direction that Fed hawks are looking for so hawkishly."
"It goes without saying that this report has the potential to throw already febrile markets into a serious frenzy. If we can get 10bp moves in Treasuries on minor data, then a double-digit shift today seems likely; meanwhile, in FX it will be interesting to see if the USD sell-off continues or is rapidly reversed – either way the move could prove to be large, and painful to be on the wrong side of. Happy Friday!"