US Dollar Index Price Forecast: Outlook remains bearish, key support level emerges near 100.00
- The US Dollar Index softens to 101.6 in Tuesday’s early European session, losing 0.19% on the day.
- The negative outlook of the index remains in play below the 100-day EMA.
- Crucial support level to watch is 100.00; the first upside barrier is seen at 103.35.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), an index of the value of the US Dollar (USD) measured against a basket of six world currencies, retreats from its highest level since April 10 to 101.60 during the early European trading hours on Tuesday. Nonetheless, optimism over a tariff deal between the United States (US) and China eases some fears of a trade war between the world's two largest economies, which supports the USD.
Technically, the bearish sentiment of the DXY remains intact as the index is below the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the daily chart. However, further consolidation or temporary recovery cannot be ruled out, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering around the midline, suggesting neutral momentum in the near term.
The key support level for the US Dollar Index is located at the 100.00 psychological level. A breach of this level could expose 99.23, the low of May 7. Further south, the next bearish target to watch is 98.02, the low of April 22.
On the bright side, the 100-day EMA at 103.35 acts as an immediate resistance level for the DXY. The additional OpSite filter is seen at 104.31, the high of April 2. Extended gains could see a rally to 104.71, the high of March 27.
US Dollar Index (DXY) daily chart
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.