The risks associated with Turkish monetary policy and the Lira remain elevated – Commerzbank

The Turkish Lira has depreciated substantially since the start of the year. Economists at Commerzbank analyze TRY’s outlook.

External disinflation may not help Türkiye

The FX market is ever watchful of Erdogan pulling the plug or beginning to demand rate cuts as soon as some improvement has been achieved. Either outcome would be disastrous.

External disinflation may be helping other Eastern European countries at present, but it may not help Türkiye.

Under such circumstances, the risks associated with Turkish monetary policy and the Lira remain elevated despite the appearances.