RBI to anchor INR if sounds a bit more hawkish and point to upside risks to inflation – Commerzbank

USD/INR is still holding within the 81-83 trading range since the start of the year. Economists at Commerzbank analyze Rupee outlook after Indian inflation figures.

RBI may be forced to resume rate hikes if core inflation starts increases sustainably beyond 6%

The good news is that core inflation, excluding food and energy, dipped to 5.3% YoY in April. We could see an uptick in May but as long as it stays near or below 6% in the coming months, it could keep RBI on the sidelines. However, if core inflation starts to show a sustain increase beyond 6%, RBI may be forced to resume rate hikes.

RBI is expected to leave rates unchanged at 6.50% this Thursday, but it could sound a bit more hawkish and point to the upside risks to inflation. This could help to anchor INR.