EUR/USD: Forecasts upgraded to 1.12 by end-2023 and to 1.16 by end-2024 – ABN Amro

Economists at ABN Amro think there is more upside in EUR/USD than they had forecast for 2023 and 2024. 

Fed to take the upper bound of the fed funds rate to 5%

“We expect the Fed to take the upper bound of the fed funds rate to 5%. However, we still expect significant rate cuts in H2 23 and far more than market consensus (a total of 125 bps compared to 50 bps of cuts). This is negative for the US Dollar. Meanwhile, we have become less negative on the growth outlook for the Eurozone.” 

“As a result of these dynamics, we have upgraded our EUR/USD to 1.12 (from 1.08) end of 2023 and to 1.16 (from 1.12) end of 2024.”