When is the Australian employment report and how could it affect AUDUSD?

October month employment statistics from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, up for publishing at 00:30 GMT on Thursday, will be the immediate catalyst for the AUDUSD pair traders.

Market consensus suggests that the headline Unemployment Rate may increase to 3.6% versus 3.5% previous rise on a seasonally adjusted basis whereas Employment Change rise by 15K versus the previous addition of 0.9K. Further, the Participation Rate is expected to remain unchanged at 66.6%.

Considering the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) policymakers’ recently cautious comments, coupled with the Covid trouble in China, today’s Aussie jobs report become crucial for the AUDUSD pair traders. Also increasing the importance of today’s data is the strong Wage Price Index for the third quarter (Q3), to 3.1% YoY versus 3.0% expected and 2.6% prior.

Ahead of the event, analysts at Westpac said,

A small improvement in employment growth is anticipated in October, coming off a very weak base over the last few months (Westpac f/c: 15k, in line with consensus). With participation set to hold flat, Westpac expects the unemployment rate to round up from 3.5% to 3.6% (consensus 3.5%), though risks are to the downside for employment, and hence to the upside for unemployment. 

How could the data affect AUDUSD?

AUDUSD struggles for clear directions after reversing from a two-month high the previous day. The Aussie pair’s latest inaction could be linked to the pre-data anxiety, as well as mixed sentiment in the market.

That said, Wednesday’s strong prints of Australia’s Q3 Wage Price Index (WPI) raised doubts about the RBA policymakers’ ability to push back the hawkish bias. However, the latest Minutes and the comments from the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members have been backing the latest softer rate hike and keep the AUDUSD bears hopeful.

Should the actual data arrive stronger, the Aussie pair may witness intermediate recovery moves towards refreshing the monthly top, currently around 0.6800. The pullback moves, however, need validation from the resistance-turned-support line from April, around 0.6730 by the press time. Hence, the odds favoring a short-term advance by the AUDUSD are higher even if the bearish bias for the RBA is likely to challenge the bulls.

Technically, the AUDUSD pair’s ability to stay beyond a seven-month-old descending trend line surrounding 0.6730 teases the buyers to aim for the 200-DMA level, near 0.6950 by the press time.

Key Notes

AUDUSD dribbles around mid-0.6700s ahead of Australia employment data

AUDUSD Forecast: Aussie poised to decline, but employment data in the way

About the Employment Change

The Employment Change released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is a measure of the change in the number of employed people in Australia. Generally speaking, a rise in this indicator has positive implications for consumer spending which stimulates economic growth. Therefore, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the AUD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

About the Unemployment Rate

The Unemployment Rate released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labor force. If the rate hikes, indicates a lack of expansion within the Australian labor market. As a result, a rise leads to weaken the Australian economy. A decrease of the figure is seen as positive (or bullish) for the AUD, while an increase is seen as negative (or bearish).